UK Seasonal Shopping and Black Friday Trends and Predictions

UK Seasonal Shopping and Black Friday Trends and Predictions

As we head into November and peak season at The Pixel we have reviewed the latest projections for Black Friday and the holiday season from Adobe and IMRG.

Let’s look at the latest peak season trading predictions starting with Adobe’s projections which is based on analysing trillions of retail data points using Adobe Analytics.

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‍Adobe Peak Season Projections

Adobe has projected that the total season spend forecast for the period of Nov 1st – Dec 31st, 2024 is expected to be £25.9 billion pounds this season. This is up 6.1% from 2023 and will be the highest year-over-year growth the UK has experienced since 2020.

Adobe has also projected that mobile spend forecast for the period of Nov 1st – Dec 31st, 2024 is £14.6 billion pounds this holiday season. This will make the mobile revenue share 56.3% of online shopping, up from 55.2% in 2023.

The total BNPL spend for the season will hit £3.4 billion pounds, and peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day-record of £152.3 million.

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IMRG Black Friday Projections

Interestingly IMRG are projecting a downturn in Black Friday trading across their retailer set and  IMRG forecasts that the 8-day Black Friday week this year will experience a decline, this time of -1%.

Last year, the Black Friday sales monitored by IMRG declined -1.9% after the IMRG prediction of -2%.

The reason IMRG anticipates a decline is because most of the year has been difficult for the average retailer tracked in IMRG’s Online Retail Index. Revenue has been down most months, with website traffic and conversion also frequently reporting year on year decreases. The decline IMRG anticipates is not as steep as their data projections will have forecasted as interest rates have been declining and Black Friday falls on the last working day of the month, meaning all customers would have been paid and may therefore be more likely to spend with retailers.

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Peak Season Preparation

To ensure you are prepared and ready for Black Friday and peak season make sure you have read the latest Pixel article on Getting Ready for Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

If your business takes part in Black Friday and Cyber Monday we wish you every success in your peak season trading period!

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